Organized by: Yuliya, PANews
In a special fireside chat at the Bitcoin Asia conference, Kevin, the host of the "When Shift Happens" podcast, had an in-depth conversation with Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) about the "Bitcoin Century." The two talked about price predictions, payment applications, national strategic reserves, and the integration of AI and encryption. CZ bluntly said that Bitcoin's million dollars "will happen soon," but the more important thing is the large-scale practical scenario. He analyzed the different attitudes of governments around the world, suggested establishing an encryption regulatory framework and strategic reserves, and shared progress in the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, Pakistan and other places. This conversation gave candid and forward-looking answers about what currency the AI agent will use, the relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins, and the contribution CZ himself hopes to leave behind. The following is a transcript of the conversation:
1. What is the real “Bitcoin Century”?
Kevin: Ours is called the “Bitcoin Century.” What’s going to happen in the next 25 years that you’ll look back and say, “That was really the Bitcoin century”?
CZ: I think Bitcoin hitting $1 million will be a big sign, and it will happen.
I don’t think it will take 25 years, though. It may happen sooner.
But compared to price, I value practicality more. We need to see Bitcoin payments actually happen on a large scale and we need to see Bitcoin become pensions, superannuation funds, funds and reserve assets. All of these things will happen, and there will be more to come.
If you look at it over a 25-year period, I think all of this will come true.
2. What changes do people underestimate?
Kevin: What is the biggest underestimate that people today have in understanding this transformation? If we want to truly make this century the "Bitcoin Century", what is it that everyone is not fully aware of yet?
CZ: A whole century is a very long time. People often overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. And one hundred years is a very long time.
Even just looking at the next ten years, I think a lot of infrastructure is going to be built. Over the past two years, we have seen a dramatic shift in traditional finance’s attitude toward Bitcoin. Tokenized stocks have begun to grow rapidly in the last year, and even in recent months.
This is just the beginning. For example, some tokenized stock projects have only been launched for two or three months and are already growing rapidly. If you look at it from a ten-year perspective, this becomes a huge area. And this is only one direction.
In the next ten years, there will be a lot of changes in many areas such as payments, AI, financial infrastructure, stablecoins, tokenization, etc. We are actually at one of the best points in history. There are many opportunities in front of us. The key is to seize them.
3. How will tokenization and payments drive Bitcoin?
Kevin: You mentioned tokenization and payments. How do they relate to Bitcoin’s success?
CZ: They reinforce each other.
Today, the Bitcoin blockchain itself does not primarily host tokenization; many tokenized assets occur on other blockchains. But in the encryption industry, things that are good for Bitcoin are usually good for other fields; and things that are good for other blockchains or other tracks will in turn help Bitcoin.
People who learn about Bitcoin may eventually learn about other blockchains and other tokens; and people who enter crypto platforms through tokenized stocks may eventually be exposed to Bitcoin.
For example, in Asia, many people want to buy U.S. stocks, but it is difficult to open a U.S. brokerage account. Even if you can open an account, the trading hours are inconvenient and you may need to trade between 11pm and 4am.
If stocks were tokenized, it would give more people equal access to the U.S. stock market. They can purchase otherwise inaccessible assets through crypto platforms. Once they enter a crypto platform, they are likely to be exposed to Bitcoin. This effect compounds over time.
So, tokenized stocks are not only good for traditional stock markets, but also good for Bitcoin. The entire industry is an ecosystem, not one project versus another.
4. Will Bitcoin weaken the government or strengthen it?
Kevin: Bitcoin was originally a technology for individuals, but now it is becoming a strategic asset for institutions and even countries. Do you think Bitcoin will eventually weaken governments, or make those who adopt it early stronger?
CZ: Bitcoin by itself does not weaken or strengthen governments. What truly determines the strength of a government is its own behavior.
Some governments like to have more power and seek total control. But historically, this has not always been best for the economy and citizens. In many cases, a government with relatively weak power may actually have stronger economic performance.
Such as the US government. The United States is a big country, but relatively speaking, the power of the U.S. government is not particularly concentrated. The presidential term is limited, the two parties are constantly debating, and the process seems inefficient. However, this "weak government" structure may have promoted the United States to become one of the strongest economies in the world.
Regulation is similar. Now the US SEC has given up part of its regulatory power in some aspects, saying that certain things are not within its scope of authority, which is conducive to the development of the industry. In contrast, the previous SEC chairman, Gary Gensler, wanted to bring so many things under regulatory purview that it actually hindered industry growth.
Bitcoin is a decentralized technology that does allow individuals to gain more monetary sovereignty. But Bitcoin’s privacy design is not perfect, and on-chain transactions are very easy to track, so it doesn’t mean it’s completely free from regulation.
The government can choose how to treat it. If a country declares it illegal to hold Bitcoin, it will be difficult for the industry to develop there. If a country imposed a 36% tax on every transaction, it would also kill the industry. The government appears to have strong control, but if transactions go to zero, so will 36% of taxes.
By comparison, if a more reasonable tax rate, say 6%, were imposed on a trillion-dollar market, that would be a very substantial amount of revenue.
Therefore, technology will not determine the government, but how the government chooses is the key. In countries where voting is possible, it is ultimately up to citizens to choose.
5. How much attention do governments attach to Bitcoin now?
Kevin: How serious are governments today about Bitcoin?
CZ: Most governments have taken it relatively seriously. However, many countries still do not have an encryption regulatory framework, and only a few countries have actually established a complete framework.
There are certainly people in government who understand Bitcoin, but they are still probably in the minority. Many governments are run by older generations, who are typically slower to embrace new technologies and more susceptible to negative coverage in traditional media, and therefore have a more conservative or even negative view of cryptocurrencies.
I did feel a shift, though. I've met with many national leaders and politicians who are increasingly recognizing that this is a new technology and the need to adopt it. While some people still hold prejudices, such as believing that Bitcoin is mainly used for illegal transactions, more and more people are now explaining to them that this is not the case.
6. Is the government sincerely adopting the policy, or is it just superficial?
Kevin: When you meet with these national leaders, do you feel like they are seriously considering Bitcoin, or are they just having to appear to be trending?
CZ: Almost every national leader I meet wants to make his country better.
But frankly speaking, there are indeed some countries that do things just because they “have to do it.” Usually it's easy to see: they'll roll out some kind of framework, but it's usually overly restrictive and more like a PR move. The license approval and enforcement process is very long and almost impossible to implement, and in the end nothing happens on a practical level.
And the countries that invite me to visit are usually more progressive and really want to adopt cryptocurrencies. So if you look at which countries I visit, you can usually tell which countries are more crypto-friendly.
7. Suggestions to the government: Establish a framework first, then promote reserves and stablecoins
Kevin: If you were advising a major government today, what would you tell them about Bitcoin? What have they not done yet?
CZ: The first is establishing a regulatory framework for crypto.
But having a framework is not enough. It also requires continuous evaluation: what is good, what is not good, how to revise it, and how to improve it over time.
Many regulatory frameworks now focus on several directions. In the past few years, the focus has usually been on centralized exchanges; in the past year or two, many countries have begun to pay attention to stablecoins. It’s a good thing that stablecoins are getting more attention because there’s a lot of discussion in the U.S. around bills like GENIUS, CLARITY, and more.
In addition to this, many countries have not yet established crypto reserves. I usually recommend that they build crypto reserves as this is very important for the long-term development of the country.
Many countries have not yet issued their own stablecoins. They need to bring their national currencies to the blockchain so that they can capture local currency liquidity on the chain and promote the international use of their national currencies.
Another important direction is asset tokenization. In addition to stocks and traditional financial instruments, many countries are also discussing the tokenization of rare minerals, real estate, cultural and artistic assets. They see tokenization as a way to attract capital into their countries or allow overseas investors to buy into their assets.
8. Which countries are leading the way?
Kevin: Which countries do you think are doing the best in these directions?
CZ: Different countries are pushing in different directions.
I think the UAE probably has the most progressive crypto regulation right now. ADGM, also known as Abu Dhabi Global Market, has issued a global license to Binance.com, allowing it to operate almost all products, which is a very important development. However, the UAE has yet to issue a major stablecoin, but I hear there are discussions there.
The United States has made more progress in stablecoins and also pays attention to exchange supervision. In the past, frameworks such as MSB, which is a currency transfer license, were mainly used. My impression now is that the CFTC is advancing very quickly at the federal level, especially in terms of futures and derivatives licensing, which is very beneficial to the industry.
Japan is also moving forward and Hong Kong is developing rapidly. Singapore is relatively conservative today, but continues to take action.
Pakistan is also advancing quickly. I just had a meeting with them. Pakistan’s regulatory progress is rapid, but the implementation level has not yet fully caught up. For example, exchanges do not yet have local customer fund bank accounts. However, these things are progressing, and they have not issued stablecoins yet.
Kazakhstan is advancing very quickly, with good bank support and Binance Pay can work with the widely used QR code system there. Kyrgyzstan will also see progress soon. I will be visiting both countries next week. Overall, many countries are indeed moving quickly.
9. Which countries misunderstand Bitcoin?
Kevin: Is there any major government that’s got it completely wrong about Bitcoin?
CZ: I don’t want to name specific countries and make them look bad.
But I think many countries view Bitcoin as a dangerous thing. In fact, not using Bitcoin may be more dangerous, because that means you are missing out on the trend.
This is very similar to AI. Which country doesn’t want to master AI technology? It is dangerous if a country does not invest in AI and promote the development of its own AI industry. AI of course has its own risks, but when used correctly it can bring huge value.
The same goes for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. There are still many misunderstandings about them in some countries.
10. Will Bitcoin be more important than gold?
Kevin: You mentioned strategic reserves. If Bitcoin becomes a national strategic reserve asset, will it ultimately be more important than gold?
CZ: Definitely. I think Bitcoin will definitely be more important than gold.
Of course, it takes time for major countries to make changes. Today, countries already have a complete set of mechanisms for evaluating and holding gold. It will take many years to switch to Bitcoin or other crypto-assets. But it will happen.
Bitcoin is a better asset than gold. Peter Schiff might disagree, and I've argued with him before, but I think Bitcoin will be far more important.
11. What might be wrong with those who believe that Bitcoin surpasses gold?
Kevin: A lot of people here have long believed that Bitcoin will surpass gold. Is it possible we are wrong? What could go wrong?
CZ：
There is a small possibility that some digital currency better than Bitcoin will emerge and surpass Bitcoin before Bitcoin surpasses gold.
But judging from what we saw today, this probability is very small.
I think Bitcoin will surpass gold soon. Now the gap between the two is only about 10 times, and maybe the next bull market may happen.
12. How should national reserves allocate crypto assets?
Kevin: If you were allocating reserves for a country today, what proportion would you recommend they allocate to Bitcoin? Why?
CZ: My advice is simple and a little self-serving.
I usually recommend choosing the top five cryptocurrencies by market capitalization and removing stablecoins since countries may already have USD reserves. Then allocate according to market capitalization weight.
This is the simplest, most direct, and most market-oriented method.
With this configuration, usually more than 50% may be in Bitcoin, 10% to 20% in Ethereum, and BNB will also enter it.
13. Why not just allocate Bitcoin?
Kevin: From the perspective of Bitcoin, I would like to ask: Why not suggest that they only allocate Bitcoin? This is a Bitcoin conference after all, and many people may also be Bitcoin maximalists. If you understand Bitcoin, many people will think that only Bitcoin is truly meaningful.
CZ: I understand the perspective. Conference organizer David Bailey is a Bitcoin maximalist and a good friend of mine.
But I think if the entire industry was just Bitcoin, the industry would grow much slower.
Other blockchains do not take value away from Bitcoin. The existence of Ethereum and other blockchains has actually helped Bitcoin grow. Without other blockchains, Bitcoin would probably be smaller, not bigger.
This industry is not a zero-sum game. What is good for Bitcoin will also be good for other blockchains; what is good for other blockchains will in turn help Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has its own unique value: it has the largest market capitalization, is the most decentralized, and will continue to be a reserve currency for a long time to come. But other blockchains have more room to experiment and try new things faster. It would also be great if these innovations could be absorbed by Bitcoin in the future.
In the early days, the entire encryption industry was actually called the "Bitcoin industry", and later it was gradually called Crypto. In fact, the word Crypto is not friendly to ordinary people. It sounds a bit scary and too mathematical; the term Web3 is okay. But the name itself is not the most important thing.
I believe that the entire industry should be promoted. We need multiple blockchains, multiple exchanges, multiple DEXs, multiple perpetual contract DEXs, and innovation in multiple directions. Competition brings more innovation and impetus.
The core of this industry is decentralization, so we should embrace "multiple everything" instead of turning it into a situation of one against the other.
14. What will drive the next cycle?
Kevin: Over the past ten years, we have proven that Bitcoin can exist. What are the real drivers of the next cycle?
CZ: Frankly, I'm not sure.
From now on, both RWA and AI are strong. Stablecoins will continue to grow, centralized exchanges will continue to grow, decentralized exchanges will continue to grow, meme coins will continue to grow, and NFTs will probably come back in some form.
Many areas will continue to grow, but it’s difficult to predict what the next real hot spot will be. At the beginning of 2017, I would not predict the issuance of coins; but half a year later, the issuance of coins will become very important. Six months before the NFT craze, I couldn’t have predicted that it would explode.
So it’s hard to predict the next hot spot. It's up to the entrepreneurs, the people in the room and the industry, to create the next big trend.
15. What currency will the AI agent use?
Kevin: Let’s talk about AI. If there were billions of AI agents in the future who could automatically buy, sell, negotiate, and transact, what currency would these agents use?
CZ: It will definitely be cryptocurrency.
Kevin: Which one specifically?
CZ: I think they will probably start with stablecoins.
Once stablecoins are accepted, adding Bitcoin is easy. BNB, Ethereum, Solana and other blockchain assets can also be added later.
In addition, some large AI companies may also issue their own tokens. I have discussed with multiple top AI companies how to issue tokens.
Building a data center requires a lot of money. One gigawatt of computing power costs approximately $30 billion to $50 billion. Many AI companies have high valuations, but do not have enough funds to build the required computing power. Some companies hope to build hundreds of gigawatts of computing power over the next few years, which could cost trillions of dollars.
Therefore, they will consider issuing data center tokens. When users use the data center in the future, token holders may receive corresponding rewards.
If a token is issued, it will want to maximize its utility, such as using it to pay for subscription services, and further binding it to different language models and different services. Therefore, it is not unthinkable for AI companies to issue their own utility tokens.
We have already seen some projects closely related to OpenAI issue tokens, such as Worldcoin. While it doesn't have very powerful practical models today, these teams do come very close to AI companies.
I think when AI processes payments for us, they will use cryptocurrencies. But at the current stage, AI payments may lag behind AI transactions.
For example, letting an AI agent help you book a hotel or pay a bill is not a top priority issue for top AI companies right now. They focus more on making agents smarter and helping users find the best options. Users can still pay by credit card themselves.
But trading is different. Trading requires gathering information quickly, reacting quickly, analyzing charts, and executing strategies. AI can significantly increase efficiency, perhaps by a factor of 10. In this scenario, you don’t want you to manually click on the transaction after the AI analyzes it, but you want the AI to place an order directly.
Therefore, AI is likely to first make transactions for people and then pay for them.
16. Is Bitcoin still a savings technology?
Kevin: Does this mean that Bitcoin is still primarily a savings technology, whether in the human world or the AI world? Stablecoins or other cryptoassets used for commerce and transactions between machines?
CZ: To a large extent, that’s the next step.
But as people increasingly use stablecoins for payment, many payments will also shift to native cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin payments.
Many people are not used to Bitcoin price fluctuations. But once payment rails are fully open to widespread acceptance of cryptocurrencies, people who hold Bitcoin won’t be tempted to swap it for stablecoins first. They hold Bitcoin for a long time, don’t care about short-term fluctuations, and don’t want to go the extra step of exchanging it for fiat-linked assets before spending it.
I own BNB myself and also hold some Bitcoin. I mainly spend BNB. I would not sell BNB to USD first and then spend it because that would be inconvenient. When using Binance Card, BNB will be deducted based on the amount spent. I don't care much about the exchange rate at the time because prices can fluctuate, possibly upward. I just consume according to the price of that day and that minute.
So, initially people will pay with stablecoins; but as payment networks become more popular, people will spend directly the cryptocurrencies they already hold.
17. What contribution does CZ hope to make to the “Bitcoin Century”?
Kevin: This conversation is called "Bitcoin Century." What do you hope CZ’s contribution will be to this Bitcoin century?
CZ: I actually don’t know.
My mentality has always been to do my best. If my ability is limited, I will contribute a little; if my ability is greater, I will contribute a little more.
So far, I believe that I have made some contributions to the crypto industry within my capabilities. As long as I can still do it in the future, I will continue to do my best and continue to contribute to this industry.